Hosni Mubarak’s speech on Tuesday was basically a fuck-you to the protesters. The clear message was “Fuck you all, I’ll resign when I feel like it”. Although it was flavored with self-pity (“after all I’ve done for you”), in essence it was a bravura piece of arrogance. He was at pains to make it clear that nothing the protesters could do could make him change his plans.
Now he’s gone a step further. The supposedly spontaneous ‘pro-Mubarak’ demonstrations (or, to put it another way, armed assaults on anti-Mubarak protesters) show signs of having been organized and paid for by the regime. If that’s the case, that’s not just the act of a spiteful tyrant lashing out at the people who dared to challenge him: it’s Mubarak sending another fuck-you, this time to the international community and in particular the United States. To allow Mubarak to save face, Obama kept his speech carefully non-committal, but his core message was unambiguous: change needs to start immediately. Sending in armed mobs to beat the protesters bloody, is equally unambiguous: you don’t tell me what to do either.
This may not have been a clever move. You don’t slap a US president in the face. Barrack Obama acts like a civilized man, but he is only the pinnacle of a vindictive system that has a history of avenging slights with near-medieval brutality. The US focus is likely to shift from providing a golden bridge that allows Mubarak to retreat with dignity to cutting the ground from under his feet at every opportunity. The king-maker in Egypt today is the army. US envoys are probably already speaking to key generals, reminding them who foots the bill for all that modern equipment they enjoy so much. Mubarak, on the other hand, has little left to offer them. That doesn’t bode well for his long-term survival.
But long-term survival may not be his plan. At 82, may feel he has nothing left to lose. Faced with the certainty of defeat, he may choose to lay waste to everything around him, to sow such divisions in Egypt as to render it ungovernable and leave a legacy of chaos for his successors. Alternatively, he may really believe - just as he really believes that Egyptians should be grateful to him - that he can still win this one.
Either way, the chances for a peaceful transition to a more democratic Egypt look much smaller today than they did a few days ago.
